{"id":8807,"date":"2025-12-14T18:17:13","date_gmt":"2025-12-14T17:17:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kriptodnevnik.com\/?p=8807"},"modified":"2025-12-14T18:17:13","modified_gmt":"2025-12-14T17:17:13","slug":"prezivljava-li-bitcoin-ciklus-americku-monetarnu-politiku","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sputnet.com.ng\/dnevnik\/2025\/12\/14\/prezivljava-li-bitcoin-ciklus-americku-monetarnu-politiku\/","title":{"rendered":"Pre\u017eivljava li Bitcoin ciklus ameri\u010dku monetarnu politiku?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bitcoin je godinama bio simbol predvidivosti unutar kaoti\u010dnog financijskog svijeta. Svake \u010detiri godine halving je slu\u017eio kao pouzdan okida\u010d novog rasta, gotovo poput mehani\u010dkog sata. No 2025. godina pokazuje da se pravila igre mijenjaju. Matemati\u010dka logika vi\u0161e nije dovoljna. Bitcoin je prerastao vlastiti balon i sada se kre\u0107e unutar istog makro okvira kao i ostala rizi\u010dna imovina.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Danas cijenu Bitcoina sve vi\u0161e oblikuju kamatne stope, odluke ameri\u010dkih Federalnih rezervi i politi\u010dka neizvjesnost u SAD-u.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Halving ili izbori: tko zapravo upravlja Bitcoinom?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ideja o \u010detverogodi\u0161njem Bitcoin ciklusu dugo je bila temelj kripto narativa. Jednostavna, jasna i lako razumljiva. No prema Markusu Thielenu iz 10X Researcha, taj model vi\u0161e ne obja\u0161njava kretanja tr\u017ei\u0161ta.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Thielen isti\u010de da se povijesni vrhunci Bitcoina ne poklapaju s halvingom, ve\u0107 s ameri\u010dkim izbornim ciklusima. Vrhovi iz 2013., 2017. i 2021. godine svi su se dogodili krajem godine, to\u010dnije u \u010detvrtom kvartalu. To se, prema njegovu mi\u0161ljenju, puno bolje uklapa u dinamiku ameri\u010dkih midterm izbora i perioda konsolidacije na tr\u017ei\u0161tima kapitala.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">U aktualnom okru\u017eenju dodatni problem predstavlja nejasna ekonomska politika. Federalne rezerve \u0161alju proturje\u010dne signale, a tr\u017ei\u0161ta vi\u0161e ne znaju kako interpretirati poruke Jeromea Powella. Kao posljedica toga, Bitcoin je iza\u0161ao iz uzlaznog kanala koji je zapo\u010deo 2023. godine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Fed, kamatne stope i zbunjeni investitori<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Reakcije tr\u017ei\u0161ta nakon objava Feda postale su nepredvidive. Nakon posljednje odluke Federalnih rezervi, Bitcoin je kratkotrajno sko\u010dio na 94.000 dolara, da bi se ubrzo povukao ispod 90.000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\ud83d\udfe2 Bitcoin Price: $89,500 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/xOUKDeIoQt\">pic.twitter.com\/xOUKDeIoQt<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bitcoin Price (@BTCPrice) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/BTCPrice\/status\/2000178797711175897?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 14, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Razlog le\u017ei u tonu komunikacije. Powell zapo\u010dinje neutralno, tijekom konferencije zvu\u010di sve bla\u017ee, dok slu\u017ebena poruka ostaje restriktivna. Takva nedosljednost stvara konfuziju me\u0111u investitorima i pove\u0107ava volatilnost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Istovremeno, priljevi u Bitcoin ETF-ove zna\u010dajno su usporili. Dok je krajem 2023. godine u kripto proizvode u\u0161lo oko 34 milijarde dolara, u 2025. taj iznos iznosi tek oko 22 milijarde. Jo\u0161 zabrinjavaju\u0107e, on-chain podaci prvi put od kolovoza 2023. pokazuju negativne neto tokove.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Altcoini pod pritiskom, institucionalni kapital selektivan<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Makro neizvjesnost najte\u017ee poga\u0111a altcoine. Ethereum stagnira, dok manji projekti gube likvidnost i interes investitora. Prema Thielenu, bez novih neto priljeva nema realnog oporavka tr\u017ei\u0161ta.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Institucionalni kapital sve vi\u0161e izbjegava rizi\u010dne tokene i okre\u0107e se reguliranim kripto dionicama i IPO-ovima. Tvrtke poput Circlea ili Robinhooda privla\u010de pa\u017enju jer nude transparentnost, reviziju i likvidnost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Zanimljiv je i primjer Ju\u017ene Koreje, gdje je kripto volumen u jednom danu dosegnuo 25 milijardi dolara, dok je cijela lokalna burza ostvarila svega 15 milijardi. Ipak, \u010dak i tamo investitori sve \u010de\u0161\u0107e biraju ameri\u010dke kripto dionice umjesto altcoina.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Novi oblik kripto ciklusa<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kripto ciklusi nisu nestali, ali su promijenili oblik. Halving vi\u0161e nije jedini pokreta\u010d rasta, a makroekonomski faktori igraju sve ve\u0107u ulogu. Uz to, dugoro\u010dni Bitcoin hodleri dodatno smanjuju raspolo\u017eivu likvidnost jer odbijaju prodavati \u010dak i na vi\u0161im razinama cijene.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">U takvom okru\u017eenju, tr\u017ei\u0161te ostaje zarobljeno u fazi \u010dekanja. Bez jasnog signala iz monetarne politike i bez novih priljeva kapitala, Bitcoin i \u0161ire kripto tr\u017ei\u0161te te\u0161ko mogu zapo\u010deti novi sna\u017ean uzlazni trend.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin je godinama bio simbol predvidivosti unutar kaoti\u010dnog financijskog svijeta. Svake \u010detiri godine halving je slu\u017eio kao pouzdan okida\u010d novog [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8808,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[36,190],"class_list":["post-8807","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-btc","tag-fed"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sputnet.com.ng\/dnevnik\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8807","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sputnet.com.ng\/dnevnik\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sputnet.com.ng\/dnevnik\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sputnet.com.ng\/dnevnik\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sputnet.com.ng\/dnevnik\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8807"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/sputnet.com.ng\/dnevnik\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8807\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sputnet.com.ng\/dnevnik\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8808"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sputnet.com.ng\/dnevnik\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8807"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sputnet.com.ng\/dnevnik\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8807"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sputnet.com.ng\/dnevnik\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8807"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}