{"id":8050,"date":"2025-07-29T08:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-07-29T07:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kriptodnevnik.com\/?p=8050"},"modified":"2025-07-29T08:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-07-29T07:00:00","slug":"vrijeme-za-spustanje-kamatnih-stopa-ili-put-u-novu-krizu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sputnet.com.ng\/dnevnik\/2025\/07\/29\/vrijeme-za-spustanje-kamatnih-stopa-ili-put-u-novu-krizu\/","title":{"rendered":"Vrijeme za spu\u0161tanje kamatnih stopa \u2013 ili put u novu krizu?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Stanje na tr\u017ei\u0161tu je izrazito pozitivno, sve je na svom vrhuncu, S&amp;P 500 je na ATH-u, Bitcoin je blizu svog ATH-a\u2026 Na prvu ne postoji razlog za\u0161to se kamatne stope ne bi spustile, kako to zaziva Donald Trump, no je li to pravi potez?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Za\u0161to spu\u0161tanje kamatnih stopa zvu\u010di privla\u010dno<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Na prima facie, nekakvo logi\u010dno razmi\u0161ljanje bi bilo da, ako je ekonomija stabilna, ne trebaju nam ovako visoke kamatne stope koje ote\u017eavaju kreditiranje. Smanjenjem kamatnih stopa, krediti postaju dostupniji, ekonomija se pokre\u0107e. Sredi\u0161nja banka zavr\u0161ava svoje restriktivne operacije na financijskim tr\u017ei\u0161tima, slijedi kvantitativno popu\u0161tanje, gra\u0111anima su krediti dostupniji i cijela ekonomija profitira od toga.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Takvo razmi\u0161ljanje uistinu jest razumno, ali nije ba\u0161 sve tako jednostavno kako izgleda. Situacija je dosta delikatna. Va\u017eno je istaknuti da su tarife na snazi, a svi \u017eeljno i\u0161\u010dekuju prvi kolovoz, kada \u0107e Donald Trump odlu\u010diti o samim tarifama. Dao je natruhe da \u0107e one biti u rasponu od 15 do 20%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dogovor je postigao s EU, prema kojem \u0107e carine iznositi 15% na ve\u0107inu izvoznih proizvoda uklju\u010duju\u0107i i europske automobile te carine od 50% na \u010delik i aluminij. Shodno tome, mo\u017eemo o\u010dekivati da carine ne\u0107e biti toliko drasti\u010dne kako je Trump najavljivao, odnosno da ne\u0107e biti 30%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">JUST IN: \ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8\ud83c\uddea\ud83c\uddfa President Trump says US officially reached trade deal with EU.<\/p>&mdash; Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/WatcherGuru\/status\/1949522649601765464?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 27, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Carine u ve\u0107ini slu\u010dajeva zagrijavaju inflaciju te neki smatraju da se njihovi u\u010dinci ve\u0107 vide u zadnjem izvje\u0161\u0107u o godi\u0161njoj inflaciji, koja je ubrzala drugi mjesec za redom, odnosno 2,7 % u usporedbi s pro\u0161lim mjesecom u kojem je bila 2,4 %. Sve je to bilo u skladu s o\u010dekivanjima, ali mogu se naslutiti u\u010dinci tarifa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"700\" src=\"https:\/\/sputnet.com.ng\/dnevnik\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/US_Inflation_Rate-1-1024x700.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8053\" srcset=\"https:\/\/sputnet.com.ng\/dnevnik\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/US_Inflation_Rate-1-1024x700.png 1024w, https:\/\/sputnet.com.ng\/dnevnik\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/US_Inflation_Rate-1-300x205.png 300w, https:\/\/sputnet.com.ng\/dnevnik\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/US_Inflation_Rate-1-768x525.png 768w, https:\/\/sputnet.com.ng\/dnevnik\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/US_Inflation_Rate-1.png 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Za\u0161to agresivno spu\u0161tanje stopa nosi rizike<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Upravo radi svih tih mogu\u0107nosti, odnosno nejasno\u0107a vezanih za tarife, agresivno spu\u0161tanje kamatnih stopa, od \u010dak 300 baznih bodova, bi bio put u dugoro\u010dnu katastrofu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">You can\u2019t make this up:<br><br>President Trump is now calling for AT LEAST 300 basis points of rate cuts.<br><br>Buckle up. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/FwVebIi1Kc\">pic.twitter.com\/FwVebIi1Kc<\/a><\/p>&mdash; The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/KobeissiLetter\/status\/1942947749269541007?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 9, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><br>Zapravo, to bi mo\u017eda i bilo jednostavno rje\u0161enje, ali dugoro\u010dno gledano jako opasno. Prema Wicksellianovom modelu, prihva\u0107enom od modernih sredi\u0161njih banaka, kada se ekonomija pregrijava, kamatne stope trebaju i\u0107i polako prema gore, a kad je ekonomija usporena, kamatne stope trebaju i\u0107i prema dolje.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trenutno stanje ekonomije<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Prema svim dostupnim podacima, ekonomija ne usporava. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"650\" height=\"536\" src=\"https:\/\/sputnet.com.ng\/dnevnik\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/gdpnow-forecast-evolution.gif\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8054\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rast BDP-a je na 2,6 %, nezaposlenost na 4,1 %, te je potreba za radnom snagom i dalje jaka, a nominalne pla\u0107e rastu vi\u0161e od inflacije. Dakle, ekonomija je poprili\u010dno stabilna. Va\u017eno je naglasiti da \u0107e se kamatne stope spustiti ove godine, ali ne toliko koliko bi Trump \u017eelio. Ispunjenje njegovih \u017eelja mogli bismo potencijalno o\u010dekivati kada do\u0111e novi guverner, odnosno idu\u0107e godine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Prave reforme umjesto brzih rje\u0161enja<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ukoliko bi se \u017eelje ispunile, to bi samo bilo stavljanje problema pod tepih i bje\u017eanje od istine. Takvo spu\u0161tanje bi uistinu dalo kratkoro\u010dni poticaj, ali reforme se ne bi provele. SAD-u su potrebne istinske i korjenite reforme \u0161to se ti\u010de smanjenja duga jer on postaje sve neodr\u017eiviji \u2013 dakle, fiskalna konsolidacija.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><br>Generalno, svi su postali ovisni o stimulansima i kvantitativnom popu\u0161tanju, \u0161to stvara \u017eelju za konstantnom komocijom i intervencijama na financijskim tr\u017ei\u0161tima od strane sredi\u0161njih banaka, \u0161to sustav \u010dini nesposobnim da funkcionira samostalno. Nadalje, novac bi postao jeftin, kapital bi se alocirao u rizi\u010dnu imovinu te bi ponovno nastali mjehuri\u0107i i financijska nestabilnost, \u0161to, kao \u0161to nas je i povijest nau\u010dila, ne vodi ni\u010demu osim njihovu pucanju.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Zaklju\u010dak:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Summa summarum, ako bi se nastavila koristiti brza i jednostavna rje\u0161enja, to bi jedino dovelo do jo\u0161 ve\u0107ih problema u vidu brojnih dru\u0161tvenih nemira, jo\u0161 ve\u0107e socijalne nejednakosti, jo\u0161 ve\u0107eg nepovjerenja u institucije i totalnog kaosa. Trebamo ostati optimisti\u010dni i nadati se da \u0107e politi\u010dari staviti svoje interese sa strane i gledati \u0161iru sliku, ali sve je u rukama jednog \u010dovjeka.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stanje na tr\u017ei\u0161tu je izrazito pozitivno, sve je na svom vrhuncu, S&amp;P 500 je na ATH-u, Bitcoin je blizu svog [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8052,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[390,676,878,385],"class_list":["post-8050","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-editorial","tag-eu","tag-sad","tag-trade","tag-trump"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sputnet.com.ng\/dnevnik\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8050","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sputnet.com.ng\/dnevnik\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sputnet.com.ng\/dnevnik\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sputnet.com.ng\/dnevnik\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sputnet.com.ng\/dnevnik\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8050"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/sputnet.com.ng\/dnevnik\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8050\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sputnet.com.ng\/dnevnik\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8052"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sputnet.com.ng\/dnevnik\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8050"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sputnet.com.ng\/dnevnik\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8050"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sputnet.com.ng\/dnevnik\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8050"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}