In a market as volatile and sentiment-driven as crypto, experience and a data-driven approach often make the crucial difference between success and failure. As the industry moves deeper into 2025, questions loom over whether we are entering a new golden era for crypto, or if the ecosystem is headed for a massive reset.
To help navigate these uncertain times, we turn to Vedran Vukman, CEO of Revuto and a seasoned crypto investor since 2017. In a special commentary for Kripto Dnevnik, Vedran shares his personal view on market cycles, Bitcoin dominance, the behavior of altcoins, and what might lie ahead for 2025.
Drawing from over seven years of hands-on experience, Vedran emphasizes that Bitcoin dominance remains the key indicator for understanding crypto market dynamics.
“As an investor active since early 2017, I rely heavily on the Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.d) chart to understand where we are in the cycle. Historically, green periods on the BTC.d chart signal short-lived bull cycles, often lasting about a month,” Vukman explains. “However, these ‘crypto crazes’ — when the entire market rallies — are not perfectly aligned with Bitcoin’s longer bull cycles.”
Since Bitcoin’s all-time high of $68,000 in late 2021, the market has been on a prolonged journey of recovery and redefinition. Despite bearish narratives, Bitcoin has climbed from $16,500 (November 2022) back to historic strength — but the broader market story remains more complex.
According to Vedran, all crypto cycles including altcoin booms and busts — can be read through the lens of Bitcoin dominance.
“Back in early 2017, BTC.d was above 90% because there weren’t many alternatives apart from Ethereum. Over the year, BTC dominance fell to around 40%, signaling the beginning of a new crypto winter,” he recalls. “It was the era of ICOs — projects like Dash, NEO, NEM, BCH, Monero, EOS, IOTA, ADA, and XRP were launched, and the excitement around altcoins was unprecedented.”
Investors, fueled by opportunity and greed, moved capital from Bitcoin into lower-cap coins, seeking bigger and faster returns.
“Moving just a small fraction of Bitcoin’s market cap into a low-cap coin could trigger massive price increases. This behavior attracted a type of investor focused solely on quick profits — the so-called ‘paper hands’ — who often sparked rapid sell-offs when momentum slowed,” Vedran notes.
Today, however, the dynamics seem different.
“BTC.d is still rising, and it’s astonishing considering the size of the current market cap,” he says. “Unlike in 2017, when Bitcoin dominance started dropping at around 70%, we haven’t seen a similar shift yet.
Did Bitcoin ETFs change the flow of capital? Did meme coins and political events ruin Q1 and Q2? Or maybe altcoins simply won’t shine in this cycle? These are the critical questions.”
Looking back, Vedran points out that crypto has historically experienced two major altcoin collapses — one in early 2018 and another in early 2022 — each marking the onset of extended bear markets.
“Crypto winters are periods when fear dominates, Bitcoin regains dominance, and liquidity concentrates again. Later, when Bitcoin dominance falls sharply, it usually signals the beginning of a new altcoin season,” he explains.
As we look ahead toward 2025, Vedran outlines two potential paths for the crypto industry:
“In my humble opinion, two scenarios are possible:
- We are entering a kind of super cycle, and the biggest crypto craze yet is still ahead of us.
- Bitcoin will dominate this cycle, and the market will begin to purge projects that have no real business model — which unfortunately applies to more than 99% of all crypto projects.”
He warns that even if a super cycle occurs, a reckoning is inevitable:
“Greed is an unstoppable force, and altcoins represent a huge opportunity. But eventually, unsustainable projects will collapse. Most crypto projects today survive on hype and FOMO, not fundamentals. This is not unusual in business — the majority of startups fail — and crypto will be no different.”
In closing, Vedran offers a stark but realistic reminder:
“Even if we experience the biggest rally yet, be prepared for a major awakening. Most tokens and projects will not survive in the long run.”
As 2025 approaches, investors face a critical juncture. Whether we are on the brink of unprecedented growth or a long-overdue correction, one thing is certain — understanding the underlying market mechanisms will be more important than ever.
At Kripto Dnevnik, we’ll continue to bring you the voices shaping the future of crypto.